Sunday, August 11, 2019

Relegation 2020

Well OK, everyone knows about the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool and the 3 big London clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs), in no particular order. However, for those of us who support the other teams in the Premiership, the threat of relegation is very real. As a Southampton (Saints) fan, I have spent most of the last few seasons reading the league table from the bottom up.

The promoted teams

Most years one of two of the clubs coming up from the Championship go straight back down. Sometimes, I think the gulf between the Premiership and Championship is greater than that between League Two and the National League (formerly known as the Conference). Last season, Fulham tried to by their survival but failed miserably. By contrast, Cardiff strengthened their team the least and still went back down but finished higher than Fulham.

This year, Aston Villa spent the most and, I think they stand the best chance of survival because they have a large fan base, even through their years in the lower division. Football, being what it is, has proved better pundits than me wrong but yes, Villa should stay up. Should!

Sheffield United and Norwich have acquired some new players but would probably be happy to finish 17th and must be amongst the front runners for the drop.

The Usual Suspects

Yes, Southampton are in the mix and were not safe until a week before the end of the season. Yes, there are some very good players at the club but central defence and a proven goalscorer that plays more than a dozen games remain a constant worry. The club seems to be a magnet for strikers that are proven goalscorers but injury-prone. If certain players avoid the treatment table, a mid-table finish might be possible.

Newcastle have had a lot of off-field problems to add to their on-field ones. Many pundits have tipped them for the drop and, yes, I have included them in my list of teams to watch.

Crystal Palace have (so far) kept their best player but lost a key defender. Regulars in the bottom third of the table, along with Newcastle and Southampton, they are also vulnerable.

I tipped Brighton last season as a team that was too good to go down but possible outsiders for the drop. They nearly dropped. As their main goalscorer is a year older and more injury-prone, I now consider that they are bad enough to be in danger this season.

Dark Horses

Most years, a team that we consider too good to go down does go down or come uncomfortably close. Outside of the top 6 clubs, Everton and Wolves, the remaining 12 teams will feel relieved once they reach the "magic" 40 points which is considered  enough to avoid the drop. Having said that, West Ham once went down on 41 points and last season only 38 was enough. 

The first outside bet for relegation is Bournemouth. Eddie Howe has been brilliant in keeping them up and really deserves a chance at a top club. However, the club does not have the financial clout of most other teams in the Premiership and are an outside risk.

Burnley were in the relegation mix last year but I think they will do better this year, or will they? Like many teams in the bottom third, they lack a really good striker.

Whilst I expect Leicester to stay up, they have lost key players over the last 2 years and some of their best players are getting older. They should stay up but will probably do worse than they did last season.

Summary

Sorry Sheffield and Norwich fans but you are on my critically endangered list.

Much as I hate the idea, I think the 3rd relegation place will go to Southampton or Newcastle, so they are endangered.

Vulnerable are Aston Villa, Brighton and Crystal Palace.

Burnley, Leicester and Bournemouth will have poor seasons and any could finish in the bottom 6 but will probably be celebrating their end-of-season party in February.

6 comments:

  1. After 3 games, Leicester who I tipped as relegation outsiders are now 4th. Despite both winning away from home, Southampton and Newcastle are in the bottom 3 with Norwich just above them.

    Watford are bottom and pointless but I expect them to finish mid-table, despite a poor start.

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  3. Relegation Candidate of the Week must go to Norwich for a great win against Manchester City. However, the most significant result was Southampton winning at Sheffield United, propelling Saints into 10th place!

    Newcastle's defeat at Liverpool was expected but leaves them just above the relegation zone.

    Brighton and Burnley drew and that would probably suit both teams who are 2 points above the drop zone.

    Leicester lost at Manchester United but put in a good performance. They are only outsiders for the drop.

    Crystal Palace took a hammering at Spurs and are safe for now but will probably struggle this season.

    Big shout out to all you fellow fans of teams facing the possibility of the drop!

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  4. ROUND-UP SEP 22

    Now with a change of manager and an 8-0 thrashing by Manchester City, Watford must be everyone's top tip for the drop. OK, I will revise my mid-table prediction but I think they will be out of the bottom 3 by March or sooner. Wolves are doing poorly, too, but I see them and Aston Villa escaping the drop, too.

    The three teams immediately above the drop zone - Newcastle, Norwich and Brighton are three of the teams I think are in danger this season.

    In 13th are Southampton. Had they won their last game, as they should have done, they would now be 6th. Mow 3 points above the drop zone and some difficult games to come, fans (of which I am one!) are feeling rather nervous. Their last opponents, Bournemouth, for whom I predicted a difficult season are now 6th but don't expect them to stay there.

    Crystal Palace, a place and point ahead got a 1-1 draw with Wolves that suited both teams quite well.

    Hats off to one of my hot tips for the drop, Sheffield United, who had a fantastic win AT Everton. That 3 points could prove crucial later in the season.

    Meanwhile, Burnley and Leicester, two of my dark horses for the drop are doing rather well so far!

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  5. ROUNDUP SEP 29

    As the Monday night match is between Manchester United and Arsenal, this will have zero effect on the relegation situation.

    20th Watford

    Losing away to Wolves was not a good day at the office but I still think Watford won't go down. With a batch of difficult games coming up, they really need to beat Sheffield United next week.

    19th Newcastle

    One of my tips to be in the mix at the end of the season, I heard the 2nd half commentary on the radio as Leicester demolished them. They almost seem a lost cause already.

    18th Aston Villa

    Like Watford, I don't think Villa will go down but they might not be safe before the end of March. A home draw with Burnley was the par result.

    16th and 17th Brighton and Norwich

    Both lost and I expect Norwich to go down. Brighton are also at risk.

    14th Southampton

    After Serge Aurier's red card, one would have expected Southampton to at least get a point at Spurs. They didn't and it could be costly. With a few tough fixtures coming up, a spell in the bottom 3 could be on the cards. The 2 other teams on 7 points won't go down.

    12th Sheffield United 8 points

    They have had a good start but don't expect it to last. Like Newcastle and Norwich, a top tip for the drop.

    9th Crystal Palace 11 points

    They are punching above their weight but somewhere around 15th or 16th is a more realistic finish.

    Dark Horses

    So far, I've got Leicester totally wrong. Their thrashing of Newcastle has put them up to 3rd. Their chances of going down are very slim. Bournemouth and Burnley who I also tipped as outsiders for relegation look safe.

    Of course, only 7 games have been played but 5 of the teams I tipped for being in danger of the drop are already in the bottom half. As a Saints fan, I hope they can get a point at home to Chelsea.

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  6. October 2nd

    Watford 20th

    A draw at Sheffield United gives them another point when I really expected to win.

    Norwich 19th

    They were thrashed at home by Aston Villa. Their win against Manchester City looks like ancient history. One of my tips for the drop.

    Everton 18th

    They have sneaked, almost unnoticed into the bottom 3 after losing at Burnley.

    Southampton 17th

    The smart money was on a draw. Maybe Saints weren’t too smart. Only just out of the bottom 3. I am worried.

    Newcastle 16th

    An unexpected win at home to Manchester United has lifted them out of the bottom 3. For now!

    Other tips

    Brighton (14th), like Newcastle, won unexpectedly against Spurs. Sheffield United (13th) drew at home to Watford and I think they will slip further. In another freak result, Crystal Palace won at West Ham. This leaves them 6th. Don’t expect them to stay there.

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