Relegation

Relegation Round-Up March 8^th

^{Of the teams in immediate danger, only Brighton scored any points and it was a great away draw at Wolves. Aston Villa were due to play away to Leicester on Monday 10th, a match that Leicester should win easily.}

^{In the "not technically safe yet" crunch match, Newcastle won at Southampton but, with the bottom six all being in poor form, it is even possible that both teams, plus Everton just above them, may have already gained enough points to stay up.}

^{Burnley and Crystal Palace, both on 39 points, can safely open the champagne, as only a freak set of results would send them down. This is about as likely as Mick Channon coming out of retirement.}

Relegation Round-Up March 1^st

^{Here is the league table:}

^{https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football}

^{Norwich are down as they need to outperform their rivals by 7 points or 6 points and loads of goals. Sorry, it won't happen.}

^{For Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Watford, West Ham and Brighton, they are separated by a mere 3 points and it should be any 2 from 5 to go down.}

^{Newcastle, 4 points above this group are not technically safe but they and anyone above them are just about immune from the drop.}

^{38 points should be enough to stay up this season, although most managers normally reckon 40 points is the safety zone.}

Relegation Round-Up February 2^nd

Well, is it really 3 months since I last posted an update. Whilst I feel sorry for teams that get promoted then go back down, I was right about Norwich, bottom on 18 points. They are 7 points adrift of 17th place.

After that, it looks like being any other two of the bottom 6. They are:

15		Brighton	25	-7	26
16		Bournemouth	25	-13	26
17		Aston Villa	25	-15	25
18		West Ham	25	-13	24
19		Watford	25	-16	23

With 13 games to go and only 3 points in it, it is too close to call. It could be decided by the width of a ball or a VAR decision on a red card.

Crystal Palace are 14th on 30 points so need 3 wins and a draw to reach 40 points to avoid the drop from 14 games. Surely. they should avoid the drop.

Although 40 is generally regarded by experts as being needed to avoid the drop, if we assume that West Ham (in 18th) neither improve nor flop, it gives them about 38 point at the end of the season so 39 or 38 with a good goal difference will be enough.

I was right about Norwich and right about Brighton, Bournemouth and Aston Villa being in the nix but I did not expect either Watford or West Ham to be in danger.

On the other hand, I am TOTALLY wrong about Leicester and Sheffield United. I was pessimistic about Southampton and Newcastle, who are in the hunt for mid-table mediocrity instead.

Relegation Round-Up November 3^rd

Well, I have to admit I have been wrong about some teams this season, very wrong. When I was listening to the professional pundits on the radio, it sounded that most of the teams in the Premier League were in some sort of trouble. If you look at the league table, the season is over a quarter of the way through, it suggests that a mere 30 points could be enough to avoid relegation.

Watford are currently bottom and must be winning the race to be the worst underachievers in the league. I really didn’t expect them to be bottom. Despite an excellent away draw at Spurs, they must start picking up more points soon, or else.

Norwich were a team I flagged as a team in danger and I have been proved right.

Many people will remember Southampton’s 9-0 home defeat to Leicester for years. Really ,the rot set in when they lost at home to Bournemouth. A narrow defeat away to Manchester City suggests there is some fighting spirit at the club but it got them just as many points as they did against Leicester. As some of the teams above them are playing almost as badly, the odd home win or away draw could change the picture entirely.

Just out of the bottom three are Everton and Aston Villa. I thought that Villa could have a bad season but stay up, whereas I thought Everton would be pushing for a Europa League place. There’s so much quality at the club, they really should be doing better.

Were it not for a completely unexpected win at West Ham, Newcastle would be just above the drop zone. That valuable, unexpected 3 point bonus could be crucial at the end of the season. I tipped them as a possible contender for the drop and I predict a few tough months ahead.

Burnley have dropped alarmingly and they were one of my dark horses for the drop at the beginning of the season. They should stay up but football is a funny game.

Where I have been most wrong so far is a group of teams from 6^th to 9^th, separated by a single point. Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Brighton were all teams that I predicted varying degrees of trouble for and they are all punching above their weight.

Finally, Leicester are third when I had predicted them to avoid the drop but finish in the bottom half. If Watford are the underachievers of the league, so far, then Leicester must be the overachievers.